Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1.020768 1.192835 1.384770 1.614724 1.882781 2.185448 2.553265
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.741013 0.967724 1.249567 1.625697 2.114768 2.729640 3.562403
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.581943 0.822740 1.146158 1.612309 2.267544 3.156889 4.458175
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.478996 0.722293 1.070244 1.604126 2.403582 3.558253 5.357198
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.410507 0.654463 1.022785 1.619294 2.562667 4.000255 6.364652
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.342244 0.573484 0.939935 1.562779 2.597067 4.250525 7.104842
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.320023 0.561113 0.960387 1.669518 2.900565 4.956197 8.664566
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.274693 0.502314 0.895005 1.621471 2.935625 5.220451 9.514102
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.236154 0.449165 0.830969 1.564762 2.944286 5.435045 10.297913
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.205167 0.404972 0.776242 1.515921 2.957913 5.655732 11.115912
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.188407 0.385184 0.763515 1.543378 3.116858 6.161467 12.537134
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.183181 0.387226 0.792463 1.655297 3.454014 7.047643 14.820875
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.171200 0.374358 0.791307 1.708695 3.685482 7.764930 16.883372
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.156199 0.353067 0.770310 1.718334 3.828398 8.323195 18.698036
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.141085 0.329216 0.740439 1.704062 3.916577 8.775216 20.341010
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.128278 0.308659 0.714846 1.695407 4.015302 9.261323 22.125908
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.118704 0.294212 0.700944 1.711435 4.172329 9.896940 24.343744
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.105280 0.268562 0.657664 1.651710 4.141544 10.094837 25.543208
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.103672 0.271903 0.683726 1.764511 4.545935 11.374913 29.577998
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.092976 0.250564 0.646616 1.713736 4.533728 11.639054 31.082882
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.083022 0.229738 0.608038 1.653806 4.489628 11.817347 32.389472
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.074568 0.211737 0.574365 1.602191 4.460365 12.029620 33.816483
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.070531 0.205364 0.570577 1.631207 4.653631 12.851407 37.026486